The Arts

"The leisure class cultivated the arts and discovered sciences; it wrote the books, invented the philosophies, and refined social relations [...] without the leisure class, man would never have emerged from barbarism"

-Bertrand Russell

I grew up going to a Russian Arts School every Saturday morning, and the related summer camp every year. We painted, read, wrote, acted, sculpted, and played. The most creative times of my life- perhaps the times in which I contributed most to the people around me- I was making no money (except that one summer they paid me $800- that was awesome.)

As work evolves and opportunities for low skill labor disappear behind barriers of expensive education and experience, I have a hopeful dream that people will turn to the arts.

Sure, we might just end up playing video games. But someone needs to design them. We may smoke pot and listen to music. But someone needs to pick up the guitar. And we might while away the days walking in parks and going to the beach. And is that so bad?

With the free time granted to those who for so long have been suffocating under busy-ness, opportunities for expression of passions may finally emerge. Music, painting, theater, fiction- these are all luxuries normally afforded to those wealthy enough to have the basics.

So here is a nice thought. The people who currently drive trucks for a living- they do it for a living. Not for fulfillment, or because they love it. What they really want to be doing is making music, or learning to cook, or performing local theater. And, with the right support from society (still figuring out the details here...) they'll finally be able to do so. And this will bring mankind into its next Rennaissance. 

The Transition

How do millions of people transition out of delivery driver roles into new jobs? The transition needs to allow them to bring money home for their families. It needs to bring them to a position with the same or better upward mobility opportunity and pay and benefits. And, ideally, it needs to bring them a greater sense of accomplishment, success, and meaning than any job they've had in the past.

Because isn't that what we're all looking for in our next jobs?

Teaching an old dog wolf tricks

For the millions of Americans employed in careers at risk by automation, their livelihood over the next 20 years depends on the rapid acquisition of new skills. What those skills are is a question of interests, goals, and available options.

To be clear, it's not just low skill workers- delivery drivers, machine laborers, and the like- that are at risk. Surgeons will become secondary to robots who can do their job more accurately. Paralegals will disappear as research becomes easier.

But to start with, we can focus on delivery drivers. Even more specifically, those drivers that work at least 40 hours per week at their job- not the part time pizza guys bringing back money so they can play in their band.

However quickly autonomous vehicles do or do not come, these people will need to up their skill sets, and fast.

The first step is understanding their own advantages. What are they good at? What are you good at?

Well, they're hopefully excellent at customer service. These people are personable and quick on their feet. Plenty of problems arise out of the blue in these jobs, and drivers need to solve them quickly.

They're excellent drivers, of course. They understand traffic patterns, can react quickly to changes, and can concentrate for long periods of time.

They're many other things too, of course. And they're a whole lot of skills that their current employment isn't taken advantage of. So somehow, they- likely with the assistance of the tech companies pushing the change and the governments permitting it- need to use those skills to contribute on the next level. It will be much more than just a few new tricks. The old dogs need to learn to be wolves.

Technology will take jobs

Technology is taking away jobs faster than before. Today, with advances in AI and ML coming daily, is not the same as yesterday, which brought slow but important improvements in manual tasks.

As an entrepreneur and humanist, this excites me. These are opportunities to make the world safer (self-driving cars), cleaner (smart agriculture), and more accessible (cheaper goods brought by lights-out factories).

As an entrepreneur and humanist, this worries me. These same advances will take away jobs at a faster rate than we've seen before.

These jobs - long hours delivery driving, manual labor picking crops, dangerous and toxic (looking at you, Foxconn) factory work - are not glamorous (but neither is pharmaceutical sales). And they're often not well-paying (but neither is art). And they're often not fun or rewarding (but neither is management consulting).

But a job is more than the paycheck. As JD Vance writes, it is pride and hope. It gives us comfort to support ourselves and our families. It moves society forward. It creates a ladder towards mobility and self-improvement.

So while I am excited, I am also worried. I worry for the hundreds of food delivery drivers I have managed. I worry for the many more that self-driving delivery vehicles will (but not for a while) replace. I worry for the factory workers and the laborers and the financial advisors. Sometimes, I worry for myself.

But in every worry is an opportunity. What that exactly looks like, I have yet to decide. But it's out there.